Pamene makampani opanga zida zamagetsi ndi zamagetsi padziko lonse lapansi akulowa m'chaka chofunikira kwambiri cha2026, kusintha kwa kapangidwe kake komwe kumachitika chifukwa cha kusintha kwa mphamvu zongowonjezwdwanso komanso kusintha kwa gridi kukupitirirabe kukula. Ngakhale kuti gawoli likusangalala ndi kukula komwe kumalimbikitsidwa ndi kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zoyera komanso kufunikira kwa magetsi kochulukirachulukira, likukumananso ndi mavuto owonjezereka chifukwa cha zoletsa zoperekera magetsi, kusintha kwa malamulo ndi kusintha kwa ukadaulo. Pogwiritsa ntchito deta yaposachedwa kuchokera ku IEA Electricity 2026 Report, ziwerengero zamalonda padziko lonse lapansi komanso kafukufuku wamakampani, nkhaniyi ikuyang'ana kwambiri njira zatsopano,mavuto akuluakulu ndi malangizo amtsogolokupanga makampani mu 2026.
1. Kulamulira Kobwezerezedwanso Kumaphatikiza, Kumachititsa Kufunika Kokonzanso Zipangizo Zapamwamba
Chaka cha 2026 chikuwonetsa kusintha kwakukulu kwa mphamvu zamagetsi padziko lonse lapansi: magetsi obwezerezedwanso apambana malasha monga gwero lalikulu lamagetsi padziko lonse lapansi, zomwe zathetsa mphamvu ya malasha yomwe yakhala ikulamulira kwa zaka pafupifupi zana monga momwe IEA ikunenera. Mphamvu ya dzuwa ya PV ndi mphamvu ya mphepo pamodzi zimapangitsa pafupifupi 20% ya mphamvu zamagetsi padziko lonse lapansi, ndipo mphamvu ya dzuwa ya PV ikukula mofulumira kwambiri - mphamvu yake ya pachaka yafika pa 620 TWh mu 2025, kuwonjezeka kwakukulu kuchokera pa 450 TWh mu 2024, ndipo ikuyembekezeka kupitirira mphamvu ya mphepo, nyukiliya ndi madzi posachedwa. Kukula mwachangu kumeneku sikungokhala kokha pakufunika kwa zida zoyambira; m'malo mwake, kukuyendetsa mafunde okweza mu gawo la zida zamagetsi.
Poganizira za kuphatikiza kwakukulu kwa zinthu zongowonjezedwanso, kufunikira kwa zida zanzeru komanso zogwira mtima kwambiri kukukwera. Zipangizo zotumizira mphamvu zamagetsi zamagetsi (HVDC), zomwe zimathetsa vuto la kutumiza mphamvu zamagetsi zongowonjezedwanso mtunda wautali komanso wotsika, zawona kukula kwa msika wapadziko lonse lapansi kwa oposa 25% mu 2026. Pakadali pano, ma inverter anzeru okhala ndi mphamvu zowongolera zolumikizidwa ndi gridi komanso ntchito zofanana zosungira mphamvu akhala makonzedwe wamba a mapulojekiti atsopano a dzuwa ndi mphepo. Chochititsa chidwi n'chakuti, kutumiza kunja kwa UHV ndi zida zotumizira zamagetsi za DC ku China kunakwera ndi 81.5% pachaka m'miyezi iwiri yoyambirira ya 2026, kutsogolera unyolo wapamwamba kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi wopereka zida zamagetsi.
2. Kuchuluka kwa Kufunikira Kumapitirira, Kupirira kwa Unyolo Wopereka Kumakhala Mpikisano Waukulu
Kufunika kwa magetsi padziko lonse lapansi kukupitirirabe kukula kwake, kukukwera ndi 3.7% mu 2026—pafupifupi nthawi 2.5 kuposa kuchuluka kwa mphamvu zonse—komwe kumayendetsedwa ndi magetsi m'mafakitale, kukulitsa malo osungira deta a AI, kulowa kwa magetsi amagetsi ndi kuzizira kwambiri m'chilimwe. Zachuma zomwe zikukula zikupitilizabe kukhala injini yayikulu yakukula, zomwe zikuthandizira pafupifupi 80% ya kufunikira kwa magetsi atsopano padziko lonse lapansi pofika chaka cha 2030, pomwe mayiko otukuka akuwonanso kuyambiranso kugwiritsa ntchito magetsi, pomwe AI ndi opanga apamwamba akukhala oyendetsa atsopano.
Kuwonjezeka kwa kufunika kumeneku kwawonjezera kwambiri kupezeka kwa zinthu zofunika kwambiri. Ma transformer, switchgear ndi zingwe zamagetsi amphamvu zikuchepa, ndipo nthawi yotsogolera zinthu zina zofunika ikupitilira miyezi 8-12. Opanga akuwonjezera mphamvu zopangira, koma akukumana ndi zopinga chifukwa cha kusakhazikika kwa mitengo ya zinthu zopangira - mitengo ya mkuwa ndi aluminiyamu yasinthasintha ndi kupitirira 20% pachaka - komanso kusokonezeka kwa kayendedwe ka zinthu nthawi zina. Pofuna kuthana ndi izi, mabizinesi ambiri akufulumizitsa kapangidwe ka "China+N", kusamutsa gawo la mphamvu zopangira kupita ku Southeast Asia pomwe akuphatikiza unyolo waukulu woperekera ku China, kuti awonjezere kulimba mtima motsutsana ndi zoopsa za geopolitical ndi msika. Msika wapadziko lonse wa zida zamagetsi zotumizira ndi kugawa uli ndi mtengo wa USD 142.8 biliyoni mu 2026, pomwe ma transformer ali ndi 38.2% ya gawo la msika, zomwe zikuwonetsa malo ofunikira a zigawo zofunika kwambiri mumakampani.
3. Kusunga Mabatire Kukukula Pamalonda, Kukhala Mzati Wofunika Kwambiri pa Kusinthasintha kwa Gridi
Kutsika kosalekeza kwa ndalama zosungira mabatire kwapangitsa kuti zigwirizane ndi makina amagetsi. Pambuyo pa kutsika kwa 27% chaka ndi chaka mu 2025, ndalama zosungira mabatire kwa maola anayi zinakhazikika pa pafupifupi $78-80/MWh mu 2026, ndipo mitengo ya mabatire akuluakulu ikuyandikira $80/kWh—pafupifupi 50% poyerekeza ndi mu 2023. Phindu la mtengo uwu lapangitsa makina osungira mphamvu za mabatire (BESS) kukhala opikisana ndi mafakitale opanga gasi m'misika yambiri, zomwe zapangitsa kuti mphamvu zosungira mphamvu za dzuwa padziko lonse lapansi ziwonjezeke kuti zipitirire kukula kwambiri.
Kupatula kutsika kwa mtengo, kupita patsogolo kwa ukadaulo kukukulitsa njira zogwiritsira ntchito malo osungira mabatire. Ukadaulo wa mabatire a Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) wagwiritsidwa ntchito kwambiri, zomwe zikuwonjezera kuchuluka kwa mphamvu ndi magwiridwe antchito ogwirizanitsa makina. Pakadali pano, kufunikira kwa zida zothandizira monga machitidwe oyang'anira mabatire (BMS), zowongolera zanzeru za gridi ndi zida zowongolera ma frequency kukukula mwachangu, chifukwa ndizofunikira kwambiri pothetsa nthawi ndi kusasinthasintha kwa kupanga mphamvu zongowonjezwdwa. IEA ikunena kuti malo osungira mabatire, pamodzi ndi kukweza gridi, adzakhala chinsinsi chotsegula mphamvu zonse zongowonjezwdwa, ndipo mphamvu zosungira padziko lonse lapansi zikuyembekezeka kukula kwambiri kuti zithandizire cholinga cha mphamvu yotsika ya 50% pofika chaka cha 2030.
4. Kusintha kwa Madera, Ogulitsa Zinthu ku Asia Akupitirizabe Kutsogola
Msika wa zida zamagetsi padziko lonse lapansi ukuwonetsa kusiyana kwakukulu m'madera osiyanasiyana mu 2026. Asia ikadali maziko a kupezeka ndi kufunikira kwa zinthu padziko lonse lapansi: Kutumiza zida zamagetsi ku China kudakwera ndi 32.7% chaka ndi chaka m'miyezi iwiri yoyambirira, ndi kufunikira kwakukulu kwa zida zamagetsi zochepa komanso ma transformer ogawa ku Middle East, North America ndi Europe. Kutumiza kwa makina amagetsi ku Japan kudakweranso ndi 11.3% chaka ndi chaka, chifukwa cha zida zokhudzana ndi semiconductor, ndi kutumiza kwamphamvu kumayiko aku Southeast Asia monga Taiwan, Malaysia ndi Vietnam.
Ku Ulaya ndi North America, kusintha kwa gridi ndi kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zongowonjezwdwanso ndiye zinthu zomwe zimapangitsa kuti zipangizo zizifunidwa. Dongosolo la EU la "Fit for 55" lafulumizitsa kuchotsedwa kwa magetsi pogwiritsa ntchito malasha, zomwe zawonjezera kufunikira kwa zida zamagetsi ndi njira zosungiramo mphamvu. US ikupindula ndi Investment Tax Credit (ITC) ndi mfundo zina zokhudzana nazo, zomwe zikutsogolera kuyikidwa kwa mabatire padziko lonse lapansi, koma ikukumana ndi mitengo yokwera ya zida chifukwa cha malamulo a malo ndi zoletsa zamalonda. Misika yomwe ikukula ku Southeast Asia ndi Africa ikukhala mitengo yatsopano yokulira, chifukwa cha kufunikira kwakukulu kwa zida zoyambira zotumizira ndi kugawa magetsi chifukwa cha kukula kwa mizinda ndi magetsi, koma zimachepetsedwa ndi ndalama zochepa zogulira gridi ndi luso laukadaulo.
5. Chiyembekezo Cha Nthawi Yaitali: Kuyika Ndalama pa Grid ndi Kupanga Zinthu Zatsopano pa Ukadaulo Zimalimbikitsa Kukula Kosatha
IEA ikukonzekera kuti mphamvu yotulutsa mpweya wochepa—yotsogozedwa ndi magetsi obwezerezedwanso ndi nyukiliya—idzapanga 50% ya mphamvu zonse padziko lonse lapansi pofika chaka cha 2030, kuchokera pa 42% mu 2025, zomwe zimafuna kuwonjezeka kwa 50% kwa ndalama zomwe dziko lonse limagwiritsa ntchito pa gridi ya padziko lonse pachaka kuchokera pamlingo wa $400 biliyoni womwe ulipo pano. Ndalama zazikuluzikuluzi zipangitsa kuti pakhale kufunikira kosalekeza kwa zida zamagetsi zogwira mtima, zotsatizana komanso zanzeru m'magawo okhala, amalonda ndi mafakitale. Komabe, makampaniwa akukumananso ndi mavuto: kumanga gridi yamagetsi sikuli bwino pakupanga magetsi, ndi mapulojekiti opitilira 250 GW a mphamvu zobwezerezedwanso, malo osungiramo mphamvu ndi malo osungira deta akuyembekezera kulumikizidwa ku gridi yamagetsi padziko lonse lapansi.
Poyang'ana patsogolo, luso lamakono lidzakhala chinsinsi chothetsa mavuto. Kusintha kwa digito, nzeru ndi kubiriwira zidzakhala njira zazikulu zosinthira zida—ukadaulo wanzeru, mapasa a digito ndi zida zopanda mpweya wa kaboni zidzagwiritsidwa ntchito kwambiri. Pakadali pano, kutsatira miyezo yapadziko lonse yogwiritsira ntchito mphamvu moyenera komanso malamulo otulutsa mpweya wa kaboni kudzakhala chofunikira kwambiri kuti msika upezeke, zomwe zikukakamiza mabizinesi kuti afulumizitse kusintha kwa kupanga zinthu zobiriwira komanso kumanga makina owerengera ndalama a kaboni.
Chofunika Chotengera
Chaka cha 2026 ndi chaka chofunikira kwambiri pamakampani opanga zida zamagetsi ndi zamagetsi padziko lonse lapansi: kusintha kwa mphamvu zongowonjezwdwa kwafika pachimake, kusintha kwa gridi yamagetsi kukuchulukirachulukira, ndipo msika ukukulirakulira pang'onopang'ono, koma kulimba mtima kwa unyolo wopereka, kusintha kwaukadaulo ndi kutsatira malamulo kwakhala zovuta zazikulu. Kwa ogulitsa zida, kugwiritsa ntchito mwayi wobwera chifukwa cha kuphatikiza mphamvu zongowonjezwdwa, kukweza gridi yamagetsi ndi malonda osungira mabatire, pomwe kulimbikitsa kusinthasintha kwa unyolo wopereka ndi luso laukadaulo, kudzakhala kofunika kwambiri pakugawana gawo la msika. Makampaniwa akupita patsogolo ku tsogolo labwino, lanzeru komanso lokhazikika, ndi kukula kwanthawi yayitali komwe kumathandizidwa kwambiri ndi zolinga za kusintha kwa mphamvu padziko lonse lapansi.
Nthawi yotumizira: Marichi-19-2026
